You will find the theoretical explanations to be a revolution in their applications to weather maps. You will also find that these same theoretical explanations are "old hat", and are being used and have been used for centuries in many fields of scientific endeavor.
This book stands on two legs. The first leg is the empirical evidence as shown by the series of weather maps in the later chapters. The empirical evidence shown by these charts is sufficient to stand alone in a book without any theoretical explanation. Yet, inevitably, the questions would come pouring in: Why? How did you draw these charts? How did you find the patterns? The second leg is the theoretical explanation as to what is happening. These explanations are a revelation in the understanding of weather and are sufficient to stand alone, likewise, in a book without any empirical evidence to back them up. Nevertheless, questions would also come pouring in as to "Where are some examples that show an application of these theories?"
The examples analyzing a weather map are all mine and they have never been seen or described heretofore. The theoretical explanation of the complex maneuvers that the air makes over the Earth or a hemisphere could hardly be my discovery alone. The explanation is basically a combination of material drawn together from numerous other published sources, and a summary of the experiences in many fields. I owe a debt to all these unnamed contributors, since the theory behind this material is based upon their works.
I define Singer 's Lock as the summation of all the procedures used to make a forecast of any high, low, or other feature on a weather map. The forecast period is for 24 hours exactly. The same procedures could be used on this 24 hour forecast to extend the forecast period to 48 hours, exactly, and so on, to 72 hours, etc. The word lock is used because every high and low "locks" into an exact position with "bull's eye" accuracy for a forecast covering a period of 24 hours. The error in the forecast is theoretically zero. In practice there is an error due to surveying or locating the exact centers of the highs and lows. Any errors in locating the positions of the centers will inevitably be transferred into an error in the forecast. These procedures apply to all levels of the atmosphere, from the surface of the Earth, to the point where weather is not significant.
It obviously is a gigantic task to assemble and analyze all the data to make this type of forecast for the entire world, or as a minimum for a hemisphere of the Earth. It is likewise a gigantic task to even explain and prove out this procedure, especially since it represents a clean break with the present forecasting procedures used in every country in the world. To solve this dilemma, I decided to make an analysis of a single weather map at a fixed moment in time. I had solved the dynamical principles of the movement of all highs and lows with the use of Singer's Lock. Some of these dynamical principles should be evident on the surface map at any given moment in time. There is an advantage in beginning the explanation of Singer's Lock with a single map at a fixed time. We do not have the necessity of comparing a given low center for one day with its new position on the next day. There could be some confusion as to the exact center on both days, since the low in the new position 24 hours later will have changed in many ways. By sticking with a single day at a fixed time, we have the situation where nothing moves, which makes it easier to prove certain conclusions.
In summation, the intent of this book is to establish some of the great natural laws of the Universe that can be used on a surface weather map at any given moment in time, especially since that moment in time is frozen on the map. It will be easier to prove the dynamics of movement of weather systems, once the principles have been grasped on a weather map fixed in time.
In succeeding books I will go into the totally new empirical and theoretical proofs for the movement of all highs and lows, the exact forces that control the movements of hurricanes, the new mathematical descriptions dealing with frontal systems, the changes of shape or curvature of all features on a weather map, and some heretofore unknown causes of deepening or intensification and filling or weakening of highs and lows. This sounds like a big order to fill, but you will find that one step at a time will whittle it down to something that can be digested rather easily.
All of the preceding is not intended to give the impression that everything that is known about the weather today, prior to this book, is faulty. All of descriptive meteorology that describes all types of weather phenomena, the shapes of individual storms, etc., still holds. The forecasting rules, Rossby waves, the numerical computer procedures, etc., have an element of truth in them, but they see the truth only vaguely, since the rules are not exact physical laws that calculate exactly what is happening, as is evident from the faulty forecasts that we may get from time to time. Likewise, the statistics of meteorology are still true except that statistics and probability are usually used where the causes are not known.
There are three general ways that information is handled by the human
mind: by the words of language, by the letters and symbols of mathematics,
and by pictures or diagrams. The advantage of a chart or picture is that
the information it gives is easy to follow or check, it is simpler than
words, it clarifies difficulties, it helps the mind make a permanent record
for remembering and for further analysis. Because of this power of a chart,
you can jump immediately to Chapters 12 and 13 where the charts are located
and you will find them interesting and understandable. Nevertheless, you
will need the words (and Figures) of the first part of the book to get
a better appreciation of what the charts and pictures mean. In addition,
you will find the simple mathematical statement establishing the main rules
for constructing the charts, as given in Chapter 9, to be satisfying and
refreshing. The mathematical formulas of course state in a concise and
compact manner the generalization made by the words. You will find that
everything in this book is aimed at explaining the number, order, and position
of weather patterns. I have done this in accordance with the instructions
of the ancient Pythagoreans who first said that all material things can
This book is written at a level that hopefully can be understood by the average person, with perhaps a high school education. Some of the hard mathematical formulas that creep in at various points, as in the chapter on the polar stereographic map, are not necessary for an understanding of the charts at the end of the book. Whatever mathematics does occur is not beyond the reach of a first or second year college level. Do not let this relatively elementary and simple approach to the explanation of Singer's Lock fool you. What you will be reading in this book is the leading or cutting edge of weather research. This book is also written for every meteorologist in the world, for no meteorologist has ever seen anything like it. That this is true can be seen from a few isolated excerpts from the history of my attempts to get something published:
1. From an unpublished paper by Dr. J. E. Pournelle, Science Writer, dated 18 April 1976.
"The extraordinary thing is that it does seem to work. Why a moving storm should stop as if influenced by the position of a previous storm is beyond my comprehension: but in case after case Singer demonstrated it to me. I even took some charts at random from Singer's stack--he had them all for a five year period--and worked it myself, and I got the same result....
Now there are some obvious problems with Singer's theories.... he gave examples of the "Lock" operating on storms moving north-south, . . . Now such lines on that projection are not great circles; in fact, they have no meaning at all....
So. Singer is almost certainly wrong in at least part of his theoretical justification for his formula...."
2. Letter from Dr. Chester Newton, Editor of the Monthly Weather Review, of the American Meteorological Society, dated 27 September 1976.
"Two reviewers comment that the lines for the Lock are drawn on
a polar stereographic projection. As discussed
The following are excerpts from the reviewers referred to above:
Referee C, 27 September 1976.
"As the author states, the rules apply only on a polar stereographic projection. They would be broken on Lambert conformal or Mercator projections, for instance. Thus the rules are utterly lacking in a physical basis despite the attempt of the author to invoke physical arguments. Physical laws must remain invariant under coordinate transformations. Mother nature can hardly be expected to reserve her laws for one or another of our humanly devised coordinate systems...." Referee B. 27 September 1976.
Referee B. 27 September 1976.
"It is always pleasant to see a paper in which interest is taken in forecasting. The present article is concerned with prediction of the 24-hr motion of cyclones on the surface map, no doubt a matter in which improvements over the computer and official forecasts are often possible. Singer's simple requirement of using only the surface hemisphere chart for his prediction provides for a means of acquiring a large back file quickly and carry out forecasts of "operational research".
The relationships which author believes to have found probably result in part from the properties of the base map used (polar stereographic) and in part from what may be the Fujiwhara description of rotation of centers.
3. Letter from Dr. Daniel Lufkin, Deputy Director, Office of Meteorological and Hydrological Services, 6 October 1977. I had requested help from Richard A. Frank, Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)--Dr. Lufkin spoke
a. for NOAA and the National Weather Service. "First, I want to go on the record as agreeing with you that Referee C's remarks about the use of the polar stereographic projection were entirely mistaken. The characteristic of the polar stereographic projection is precisely that it preserves great-circle angular relationships. If Singer's Lock works on a polar stereographic map, it will work on the globe. Referee C made a mistake that should have been corrected. . ."
Dr. Lufkin, 6 December 1977
b. "I'm afraid I've got a problem for you on the question of map projections: I had agreed with you that the conformal property of the polar stereographic projection implied that angular relationships were conserved across the entire globe. I have found though that that statement is true only for small regions . . . I must confess that I thought you were right—on the question of projection, at least,—but now I don't see any way out of the referee's objection...."
Dr. Lufkin, again, 27 January 1978.
c. "I'm glad to hear that you have gone ahead on the explanation of the polar stereographic projection as it it pertains to your method. Since the angle at which two great circles intersect is going to be rather hard to evaluate if you can't treat great circles as straight lines on the map, I'm curious to see how this complication can be handled within the framework of your previous development.
Your remark that most meteorologists don't understand the properties of the polar projection is well taken. Because the angular relationships involved in your work are so far removed from the considerations of scale that meteorologists have been concerned with, my advice is for you to be fairly thorough in the development of the discussion in your paper. In essence, you'll have to show that there is some factor in the angular lock phenomenon that compensates for the variation in the angle with latitude. Good luck, because I can't imagine what it could be...."
So if you are just beginning to study weather, you will find yourself
on a relatively equal footing with top professional meteorologists with
regard to what you see in the charts in this book. I have been asked many
times, "What is the formula for Singer's Lock?" When you read
what follows, you will see the complex of formulas and principles needed
to establish the beginning steps. To go deeper into Singer's Lock requires
additional principles and complexes of formulas. It would be ludicrous
to expect that one simple formula could describe the huge number of activities,
changing from moment to moment, throughout the Earth's atmosphere. Fortunately,
I have an immense amount of empirical and theoretical proofs for my
I made my initial breakthrough in 1966. I have since then analyzed over 25 years (September through March) of Historical Weather Maps in assembling the thousands of little steps leading to what you see in this book, and what lies ahead. All the work over the years was done at my own expense and entertainment. The actual preparation of this book took me over 2 1/2 years, with the faithful assistance of Daniel Bender in the many chores that it takes to assemble a book of this nature. This was done, all at my own expense in time and money, and the same can be said of Daniel's efforts. I mention this for those who wonder as to why I stopped where I did. This whole book can only be considered as an opener, or down payment, if you please, in cold cash, that what I have is of a value that can not be ignored.
It is an interesting sidelight, that Dr. George Fischbeck, the local TV weatherman (Eyewitness News, Ch. 7. KABC Los Angeles) mentioned to me in 1976 that the best way to establish something new is to first prove its value to some trustworthy individual--it turned out that Daniel Bender met these specifications.
This book is a breakthrough to a golden era for all those who are now in the weather profession and all those who hope to enter the profession and its related fields. The discovery of the transistor led to an explosion in electronic discovery, and those individuals experienced in vacuum tube technology may have feared for their jobs. True, vacuum tubes do not hold the primacy today that they did prior to the transistor era, but the field of electronics is greater- than ever, and the former vacuum tube experts have more work than before--the same will be true for meteorologists.
Los Angeles, California
1 February 1983